DOGE’s planned budget cuts within the IRS might prove detrimental to Musk and Trump’s hopes of cutting the Federal Deficit… or nothing might happen.

I’ve got good news and bad news — Bad news, the federal government is going to miss out on $500 billion in tax revenue, cuts that’ll impact every form of government spending. Good news, we might save some money on IRS staffing salaries? I guess?

Reportedly the IRS has even noted “increased chatter online from people saying they won’t pay taxes this year or will make aggressive claims they aren’t eligible for in a gamble that they won’t be audited.” The Washington Post reported Saturday with the backing of three renouned economists and tax experts, that the IRS is bracing for a 10% shortfall.

In an ironic twist of fate, the same administration that is looking to cut the federal deficit might be finding its way further into one. DOGE’s reported plans to cut 20% of the IRS’ staff by May 15th coincides with this worrisome news, which makes sense when you consider studies from the mid 2010s suggest that all but a few income percentiles prove profitable to the IRS when auditing.

From the 1st percentile and a return of maybe $1.10 per dollar used in auditing to the 99.9th percentile, and their $6.10-to-$1 return, the IRS hasn’t necessarily been the needed cuts the government (and DOGE) have been looking for, with pretty much every income bracket generating postive returns for every dollar used in auditing.

The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget says a potential 2030 $20 billion IRS recession would add $24 billion to our deficit by 2034, more than half coming over a two-year timespan. Now imagine five times that amount in an already economically uncertain period, full of tariff promises, rejections, enactments, withdraws, and everything in between.

Long story short, the IRS might be in trouble this year, and as a result, the deficit likely to grow — the thing is, that’s a “might.” There’s a chance there’s no material resolution from these IRS staff cuts, and these are theoretical figures. I guess we’ll find out though (I *WILL* be paying my taxes, and am actively filing them, we’re chill IRS).

DOGE’s planned budget cuts within the IRS might prove detrimental to Musk and Trump’s hopes of cutting the Federal Deficit… or nothing might happen.

I’ve got good news and bad news — Bad news, the federal government is going to miss out on $500 billion in tax revenue, cuts that’ll impact every form of government spending. Good news, we might save some money on IRS staffing salaries? I guess?

Reportedly the IRS has even noted “increased chatter online from people saying they won’t pay taxes this year or will make aggressive claims they aren’t eligible for in a gamble that they won’t be audited.” The Washington Post reported Saturday with the backing of three renouned economists and tax experts, that the IRS is bracing for a 10% shortfall.

In an ironic twist of fate, the same administration that is looking to cut the federal deficit might be finding its way further into one. DOGE’s reported plans to cut 20% of the IRS’ staff by May 15th coincides with this worrisome news, which makes sense when you consider studies from the mid 2010s suggest that all but a few income percentiles prove profitable to the IRS when auditing.

From the 1st percentile and a return of maybe $1.10 per dollar used in auditing to the 99.9th percentile, and their $6.10-to-$1 return, the IRS hasn’t necessarily been the needed cuts the government (and DOGE) have been looking for, with pretty much every income bracket generating postive returns for every dollar used in auditing.

The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget says a potential 2030 $20 billion IRS recession would add $24 billion to our deficit by 2034, more than half coming over a two-year timespan. Now imagine five times that amount in an already economically uncertain period, full of tariff promises, rejections, enactments, withdraws, and everything in between.

Long story short, the IRS might be in trouble this year, and as a result, the deficit likely to grow — the thing is, that’s a “might.” There’s a chance there’s no material resolution from these IRS staff cuts, and these are theoretical figures. I guess we’ll find out though (I *WILL* be paying my taxes, and am actively filing them, we’re chill IRS).